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Rwanda Women tour of Kenya · 2024 · Women
10 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Kenya started on 61%; Kenya batted first.
Kenya's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Rwanda: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Muthonicaught · M Uwase · B Murekatete 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Uwase · b B Murekatete | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| KV Mehtalbw · Rosine Irera 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rosine Irera | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| MI Khagoitsacaught · Rosine Irera · R Shimwamana 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rosine Irera · b R Shimwamana | 12 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 92.31 |
| E Wachirabowled · Marie Bimenyimana 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marie Bimenyimana | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 115.00 |
| Queentor Abelcaught · M Uwase · Marie Bimenyimana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Uwase · b Marie Bimenyimana | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| bowled · b Rosine Irera |
| 33 |
| 31 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 106.45 |
| JS Ndanubowled · A Ikuzwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Ikuzwe | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| AW Wambuacaught · M Uwase · A Ikuzwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Uwase · b A Ikuzwe | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| JM Nthenyacaught · Rosine Irera · Marie Bimenyimana 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rosine Irera · b Marie Bimenyimana | 10 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| F Odhiambonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| J Ajiambonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Murekatete0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Rosine Irera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Henriette Ishimwe0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 2 | 0 |
| R Shimwamana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Marie Bimenyimana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 2 | 0 |
| A Ikuzwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (C Muthoni, 1.0) · 2-9 (KV Mehta, 3.1) · 3-30 (MI Khagoitsa, 6.0) · 4-39 (E Wachira, 7.1) · 5-57 (Queentor Abel, 9.3) · 6-69 (JS Ndanu, 12.3) · 7-78 (AW Wambua, 14.4) · 8-93 (JM Nthenya, 18.0) · 9-96 (V Ooko, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 10 | 20/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 30/3 |
| 7 | 9 | 39/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 48/4 |
| 9 | 5 | 53/4 |
| 10 | 7 | 60/5 |
| 11 | 1 | 61/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 68/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 71/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 76/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 79/7 |
| 16 | 4 | 83/7 |
| 17 | 6 | 89/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 93/8 |
| 19 | 1 | 94/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 97/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.