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Nigeria tour of Kenya · 2024 · Men
12 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Kenya started on 71%; Kenya batted first.
Kenya's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 29%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushab Patelcaught · Vincent Adewoye · P Useni 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vincent Adewoye · b P Useni | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 175.00 |
| N Mugabecaught · Mohameed Taiwo · Sylvester Okpe 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohameed Taiwo · b Sylvester Okpe | 28 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 112.00 |
| Nelson Odhiambocaught · Selim Salau · Sylvester Okpe 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Selim Salau · b Sylvester Okpe | 20 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 133.33 |
| Sachin Bhudianot out 5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 50* | 36 | 5 | 1 | 138.89 |
 Sukhdeep Singhbowled · Sylvester Okpe1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sylvester Okpe | 5 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Shem Ngochecaught · Sulaimon Runsewe · I Uboh 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sulaimon Runsewe · b I Uboh | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 162.50 |
|---|
| Jasraj Kundibowled · P Useni 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b P Useni | 21 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 91.30 |
|---|
| Lucas Oluochnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Aho0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohameed Taiwo0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 2 | 0 |
| P Useni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Asia0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 1 |
| I Uboh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Adewoye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Rushab Patel, 2.4) · 2-53 (N Mugabe, 6.2) · 3-73 (Nelson Odhiambo, 9.0) · 4-81 (Sukhdeep Singh, 10.1) · 5-96 (Shem Ngoche, 11.5) · 6-153 (Jasraj Kundi, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 25/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 30/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 41/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 51/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 55/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 65/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 73/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 81/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 83/4 |
| 12 | 13 | 96/5 |
| 13 | 8 | 104/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 107/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 113/5 |
| 16 | 10 | 123/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 130/5 |
| 18 | 7 | 137/5 |
| 19 | 14 | 151/5 |
| 20 | 8 | 159/6 |
Sukhdeep Singh: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
