KenyaversusNigeria

Kenya more likely to win

Why

• In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 5 and Nigeria won 1
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Nigeria (1,539 vs 1,488 on our results rating)
• Kenya are playing at home in Kenya

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Kenya started on 71%; Kenya batted first.

Kenya's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 29%).

Biggest swings

1. 11.5: I Uboh to SO Ngoche, SO Ngoche out. Nigeria up from 20% to 27%.
2. 2nd inns 1.1: GM Muthui to Sulaimon Runsewe, Sulaimon Runsewe out. Kenya up from 77% to 84%.
3. 2nd inns 4.2: P Koech to O Olaleye, O Olaleye out. Kenya up from 78% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.