Melbourne RenegadesversusMelbourne Stars

9 Nov 2024 · T20

Junction Oval, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 15 runs

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs146/6 Melbourne Stars20.0 overs131/9 Junction Oval, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 40%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 0% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.6: MH Illingworth to IY Mckeon, IY Mckeon out. Melbourne Renegades up from 41% to 53%.
2nd inns 13.2: G Wareham to A Sutherland, A Sutherland out. Melbourne Renegades up from 66% to 80%.
2nd inns 14.5: HK Matthews to M Kapp, M Kapp out. Melbourne Renegades up from 78% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades146/6 Melbourne Stars131/9

Innings 1