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Photo: 20MBM02
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
8 Jun 2025 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographScotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 63%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Richie Berrington, Matty Cross | 17 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 85.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Mackenzie Jones 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mackenzie Jones | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| B Sharkicaught · Brandon McMullen · Mackenzie Jones 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Mackenzie Jones | 73 | 85 | 8 | 0 | 85.88 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Brandon McMullen | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 29% to 99% during the match (Nepal: 1% to 71%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Michael Leask |
| 39 |
| 55 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 70.91 |
2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mackenzie Jones · b Charlie Cassell | 56 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 109.80 |
|---|
0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mackenzie Jones · b Michael Leask | 11 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 84.62 |
|---|
3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Charlie Tear · b Mackenzie Jones | 67 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 152.27 |
|---|
1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mackenzie Jones · b Safyaan Sharif | 17 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 170.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshibowled · Safyaan Sharif 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Safyaan Sharif | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 17 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Jones0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 55 | 3 | 6.11 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 62 | 1 | 6.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Charlie Cassell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 7.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 6.00 | 5 | 0 |
| 10.0 | 0 | 58 | 0 | 5.80 | 6 | 0 |
1-19 (Kushal Bhurtel, 4.0) · 2-27 (Aasif Sheikh, 4.4) · 3-34 (Rohit Kumar, 7.1) · 4-128 (Aarif Sheikh, 25.3) · 5-163 (B Sharki, 32.0) · 6-183 (Gulsan Jha, 35.4) · 7-288 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 46.3) · 8-308 (Sompal Kami, 48.0) · 9-319 (Karan KC, 49.3) · 10-321 (Lalit Rajbanshi, 50.0)
Recorded target: 324 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 27/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 34/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 35/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 44/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 46/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 51/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 61/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 67/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 69/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 78/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 84/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 89/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 96/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 103/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 106/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 111/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 119/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 122/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 126/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 131/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 135/4 |
| 28 | 7 | 142/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 145/4 |
| 30 | 12 | 157/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 161/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 163/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 170/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 173/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 175/5 |
| 36 | 9 | 184/6 |
| 37 | 12 | 196/6 |
| 38 | 7 | 203/6 |
| 39 | 7 | 210/6 |
| 40 | 7 | 217/6 |
| 41 | 11 | 228/6 |
| 42 | 7 | 235/6 |
| 43 | 11 | 246/6 |
| 44 | 18 | 264/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 273/6 |
| 46 | 11 | 284/6 |
| 47 | 13 | 297/7 |
| 48 | 11 | 308/8 |
| 49 | 9 | 317/8 |
| 50 | 4 | 321/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.