IndonesiaversusSingapore

7 Jul 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 122 runs

Indonesia20.0 overs166/1 Singapore19.3 overs44/10 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Indonesia more likely to win

86%Indonesia14%Singapore

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Indonesia rate stronger than Singapore (1,510 vs 1,306 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Indonesia won 2 and Singapore won 0
Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 85%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Singapore is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 85% to 100% during the match (Singapore: 0% to 15%).

Biggest swings

1.2: LAR Bommareddy to K Winda Prastini, 2 runs to K Winda Prastini. Indonesia up from 86% to 89%.
3.5: JT Pooranakaran to D Wulandari, four by D Wulandari. Indonesia up from 88% to 90%.
2nd inns 0.4: DAL Paramitha to RR Seth, RR Seth out. Indonesia up from 97% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia166/1 Singapore44/10

Innings 2

Singapore

44/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Singapore batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
RR Sethcaught · NW Sariani · DAL Paramitha 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · NW Sariani · b DAL Paramitha	2	4	0	0	50.00
S Mericanlbw · M Corazon 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b M Corazon	3	11	0	0	27.27
Ananya Sarmabowled · NLKWR Dewi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NLKWR Dewi	0	3	0	0	0.00
Ada Bhasincaught · M Corazon · NLKWR Dewi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Corazon · b NLKWR Dewi	7	21	1	0	33.33
DA Galialbw · M Corazon 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b M Corazon	7	16	0	0	43.75
Shafina Maheshbowled · M Corazon0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
DAL Paramitha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	7	1	2.33	2
NLKWR Dewi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	6	2	2.00	0
NW Sariani0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	1	3.33	3
M Corazon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	3	2.50	1
RD Pangestuti1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	1	0	0.50	0
SAN Maypriani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	3	0	1.50	0
NK Ariani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	1	3.00	0
TW Hamid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.3	0	1	2	2.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	1	3/2
3	3	6/2
4	1	7/2
5	2	9/2
6	4	13/3
7	4	17/3
8	3	20/4
9	5	25/4
10	2	27/5
11	1	28/5
12	1	29/6
13	0	29/6
14	4	33/6
15	0	33/6
16	3	36/7
17	3	39/7
18	3	42/7
19	1	43/8
20	1	44/10

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