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Photo: Will Noakes
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Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men
14 Sept 2024 · T20
Edgbaston · Venue photographSurrey started on 47%; Surrey batted first.
Surrey's chances ranged from 0% to 78% during the match (Somerset: 23% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daniel Lawrencecaught · Tom Abell · Josh Davey3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Abell · b Josh Davey | 19 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 172.73 |
 Dominic Sibleycaught · Sean Dickson · Lewis Gregory3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sean Dickson · b Lewis Gregory | 48 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 133.33 |
 Ollie Popebowled · Lewis Gregory3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lewis Gregory | 19 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 111.76 |
 Jamie Smithbowled · Lewis Gregory0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Lewis Gregory |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Rory Burnsrun out · Lewis Gregory · Roelof van der Merwe1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Lewis Gregory | 14 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Laurie Evanscaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Josh Davey 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Josh Davey | 22 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 115.79 |
|---|
 Tom Curranbowled · Jake Ball0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jake Ball | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Chris Jordancaught · Craig Overton · Josh Davey0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Craig Overton · b Josh Davey | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
 Jordan Clarkcaught · Tom Abell · Jake Ball0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Abell · b Jake Ball | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Cameron Steelnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 266.67 |
|---|
| Daniel Worrallnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Craig Overton0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 10.33 | 5 | 0 |
 Josh Davey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 3 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Jake Ball0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Lewis Gregory0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Daniel Lawrence, 2.0) · 2-69 (Ollie Pope, 7.3) · 3-69 (Jamie Smith, 7.4) · 4-105 (Rory Burns, 12.2) · 5-111 (Dominic Sibley, 13.3) · 6-114 (Tom Curran, 14.5) · 7-139 (Chris Jordan, 18.1) · 8-142 (Laurie Evans, 18.5) · 9-146 (Jordan Clark, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 26/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 30/1 |
| 4 | 14 | 44/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 55/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 62/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 67/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 71/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 78/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 86/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 95/3 |
| 12 | 9 | 104/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 110/4 |
| 14 | 1 | 111/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 115/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 121/6 |
| 17 | 3 | 124/6 |
| 18 | 15 | 139/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 144/8 |
| 20 | 9 | 153/9 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Craig Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Josh Davey: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jake Ball: Dun.can · CC BY 2.0
Sean Dickson: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Abell: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lewis Gregory: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Dominic Sibley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rory Burns: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Kohler-Cadmore: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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