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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
India tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Men
4 Aug 2024 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 25%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · KL Rahul · Mohammed Siraj 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Mohammed Siraj | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught and bowled · Washington Sundar 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Washington Sundar | 40 | 62 | 5 | 0 | 64.52 |
| Kusal Mendislbw · Washington Sundar 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Washington Sundar | 30 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Sadeera Samarawickramacaught · Virat Kohli · Axar Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Axar Patel | 14 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 45.16 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Axar Patel · Washington Sundar 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Axar Patel · b Washington Sundar | 25 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 59.52 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 13% to 98% during the match (India: 2% to 87%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Janith Liyanagecaught and bowled · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kuldeep Yadav | 12 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 41.38 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Shivam Dube · Kuldeep Yadav 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shivam Dube · b Kuldeep Yadav | 39 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 111.43 |
|---|
| Kamindu Mendisrun out · Shreyas Iyer · Arshdeep Singh 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shreyas Iyer | 40 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Akila Dananjayarun out · Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli · Arshdeep Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 115.38 |
|---|
| Jeffrey Vandersaynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 9 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Siraj1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 5.38 | 1 | 0 |
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 58 | 0 | 6.44 | 5 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 4.22 | 0 | 0 |
 Shivam Dube0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
 Rohit Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Pathum Nissanka, 0.1) · 2-74 (Avishka Fernando, 17.0) · 3-79 (Kusal Mendis, 18.1) · 4-111 (Sadeera Samarawickrama, 26.4) · 5-136 (Janith Liyanage, 33.4) · 6-136 (Charith Asalanka, 34.5) · 7-208 (Dunith Wellalage, 46.1) · 8-239 (Kamindu Mendis, 49.5) · 9-240 (Akila Dananjaya, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 30/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 39/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 42/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 47/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 49/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 55/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 56/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 58/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 65/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 74/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 79/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 80/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 81/3 |
| 21 | 5 | 86/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 89/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 94/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 98/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 101/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 106/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 111/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 115/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 122/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 129/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 132/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 135/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 136/4 |
| 34 | 0 | 136/5 |
| 35 | 0 | 136/6 |
| 36 | 8 | 144/6 |
| 37 | 1 | 145/6 |
| 38 | 2 | 147/6 |
| 39 | 6 | 153/6 |
| 40 | 8 | 161/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 166/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 169/6 |
| 43 | 7 | 176/6 |
| 44 | 12 | 188/6 |
| 45 | 8 | 196/6 |
| 46 | 12 | 208/6 |
| 47 | 3 | 211/7 |
| 48 | 9 | 220/7 |
| 49 | 12 | 232/7 |
| 50 | 8 | 240/9 |
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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