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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
India tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Men
4 Aug 2024 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 25%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Pathum Nissanka · Jeffrey Vandersay5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 64 | 44 | 5 | 4 | 145.45 |
 Shubman Gillcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Jeffrey Vandersay3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 35 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 79.55 |
 Virat Kohlilbw · Jeffrey Vandersay2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 73.68 |
 Shivam Dubelbw · Jeffrey Vandersay0 fours · 0 sixes |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 13% to 98% during the match (India: 2% to 87%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Jeffrey Vandersay |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Axar Patelcaught and bowled · Charith Asalanka4 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Charith Asalanka | 44 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Shreyas Iyerlbw · Jeffrey Vandersay1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
 KL Rahulbowled · Jeffrey Vandersay0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Washington Sundarlbw · Charith Asalanka0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charith Asalanka | 15 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
 Kuldeep Yadavnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 27 | 0 | 0 | 25.93 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajlbw · Charith Asalanka0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charith Asalanka | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Arshdeep Singhrun out · Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis · Charith Asalanka0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 4.43 | 1 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 6.83 | 0 | 0 |
| Akila Dananjaya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 54 | 0 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 33 | 6 | 3.30 | 2 | 1 |
| Charith Asalanka2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.2 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 3.16 | 0 | 0 |
1-97 (Rohit Sharma, 13.3) · 2-116 (Shubman Gill, 17.1) · 3-116 (Shivam Dube, 17.5) · 4-123 (Virat Kohli, 19.4) · 5-133 (Shreyas Iyer, 21.5) · 6-147 (KL Rahul, 23.1) · 7-185 (Axar Patel, 33.1) · 8-190 (Washington Sundar, 35.3) · 9-201 (Mohammed Siraj, 40.2) · 10-208 (Arshdeep Singh, 42.2)
Recorded target: 241 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 13 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 12 | 50/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 60/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 66/0 |
| 10 | 10 | 76/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 80/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 84/0 |
| 13 | 11 | 95/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 102/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 110/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 114/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 116/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 117/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 123/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 128/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 130/4 |
| 22 | 3 | 133/5 |
| 23 | 14 | 147/5 |
| 24 | 3 | 150/6 |
| 25 | 2 | 152/6 |
| 26 | 3 | 155/6 |
| 27 | 2 | 157/6 |
| 28 | 2 | 159/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 163/6 |
| 30 | 5 | 168/6 |
| 31 | 12 | 180/6 |
| 32 | 1 | 181/6 |
| 33 | 4 | 185/6 |
| 34 | 0 | 185/7 |
| 35 | 5 | 190/7 |
| 36 | 1 | 191/8 |
| 37 | 2 | 193/8 |
| 38 | 0 | 193/8 |
| 39 | 6 | 199/8 |
| 40 | 1 | 200/8 |
| 41 | 3 | 203/9 |
| 42 | 4 | 207/9 |
| 43 | 1 | 208/10 |
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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