Melbourne RenegadesversusPerth Scorchers

27 Nov 2025 · T20

Junction Oval, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Perth Scorchers won by 4 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs150/10 Perth Scorchers18.4 overs151/6 Junction Oval, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 53%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Perth Scorchers is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Perth Scorchers: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

10.4: A King to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. Perth Scorchers up from 52% to 64%.
12.5: CC Ainsworth to IECM Wong, IECM Wong out. Perth Scorchers up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 13.6: A Capsey to CC Ainsworth, CC Ainsworth out. Melbourne Renegades up from 17% to 30%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades150/10 Perth Scorchers151/6

Innings 1