BahrainversusUganda

29 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Uganda won by 8 wickets

Bahrain18.1 overs89/10 Uganda15.4 overs93/2 Jinja Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

32%Bahrain68%Uganda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Bahrain (1,656 vs 1,531 on our results rating)
Uganda are playing at home in Uganda
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 1 and Uganda won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 31%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Uganda is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (Uganda: 67% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: C Kyewuta to Asif Ali, Asif Ali out. Uganda up from 68% to 77%.
2.2: J Miyaji to Sohail Ahmed, Sohail Ahmed out. Uganda up from 83% to 91%.
3.3: C Kyewuta to Imran Anwar, Imran Anwar out. Uganda up from 88% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain89/10 Uganda93/2

Innings 1

Bahrain

89/1018.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Umer Imtiazbowled · Juma Miyagi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Juma Miyagi	1	7	0	0	14.29
Asif Alicaught · Dinesh Nakrani · Cosmas Kyewuta 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dinesh Nakrani · b Cosmas Kyewuta	5	6	1	0	83.33
Imran Anwarcaught · AR Ramjani · Cosmas Kyewuta 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AR Ramjani · b Cosmas Kyewuta	1	4	0	0	25.00
Sohail Ahmedbowled · Juma Miyagi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Juma Miyagi	0	1	0	0	0.00
Shahbaz Badarbowled · Henry Ssenyondo 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Henry Ssenyondo	7	17	0	0	41.18

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	3.1	0	18	3	5.68	2	2
Cosmas Kyewuta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	3	4.00	0	0
AR Ramjani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	1	4.75	0	0
Dinesh Nakrani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	0	0
Henry Ssenyondo1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	2	3.50	0	0
J Baguma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	1	6.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	4	7/1
3	3	10/3
4	1	11/4
5	12	23/4
6	10	33/4
7	6	39/4
8	3	42/4
9	3	45/5
10	3	48/5
11	6	54/5
12	8	62/6
13	2	64/7
14	0	64/7
15	11	75/7
16	3	78/7
17	3	81/8
18	7	88/9
19	1	89/10

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