Dambulla SixersversusJaffna Kings

19 Jul 2026 · T20

Sinhalese Sports Club Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Jaffna Kings won by 5 wickets

Dambulla Sixers19.3 overs130/10 Jaffna Kings19.0 overs133/5 Sinhalese Sports Club Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Dambulla Sixers started on 47%; Dambulla Sixers batted first.

Dambulla Sixers’s chance of winning (%) · Jaffna Kings is the rest

Dambulla Sixers's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Jaffna Kings: 49% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: V Lahiru to WIA Fernando, WIA Fernando out. Dambulla Sixers up from 18% to 28%.
2nd inns 6.3: PVD Chameera to C Wickramasinghe, C Wickramasinghe out. Dambulla Sixers up from 25% to 39%.
2nd inns 15.1: A Dananjaya to PBB Rajapaksa, six by PBB Rajapaksa. Jaffna Kings up from 73% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.