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Sri Lanka tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
3 Jun 2026 · ODI
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 50%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Campbellrun out · Janith Liyanage · Dushmantha Chameera 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Janith Liyanage | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 121.43 |
| Justin Greavesbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 45 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 118.42 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Kamindu Mendis · Asitha Fernando 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 27 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 72.97 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Milan Priyanath · Dushmantha Chameera2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Milan Priyanath · b Dushmantha Chameera | 56 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 84.85 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga |
| 5 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 41.67 |
 Roston Chasebowled · Dushmantha Chameera3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 33 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 71.74 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Milan Priyanath · Mahesh Theekshana 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milan Priyanath · b Mahesh Theekshana | 22 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 73.33 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordebowled · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 15 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 57.69 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephbowled · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 23* | 22 | 1 | 1 | 104.55 |
|---|
| Jayden Sealescaught · Janith Liyanage · Charith Asalanka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Charith Asalanka | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 67 | 4 | 6.70 | 1 | 2 |
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 59 | 1 | 7.38 | 1 | 1 |
| Mahesh Theekshana1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 2.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Milan Priyanath0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 5.40 | 4 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-50 (John Campbell, 6.1) · 2-73 (Justin Greaves, 9.4) · 3-125 (Keacy Carty, 21.0) · 4-134 (Sherfane Rutherford, 24.1) · 5-167 (Shai Hope, 30.5) · 6-214 (Gudakesh Motie, 39.5) · 7-216 (Roston Chase, 40.3) · 8-216 (Alzarri Joseph, 40.5) · 9-258 (Matthew Forde, 48.1) · 10-262 (Jayden Seales, 49.2)
Recorded target: 304 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 27/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 34/0 |
| 6 | 16 | 50/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 59/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 12 | 72/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 78/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 81/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 84/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 85/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 91/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 94/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 98/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 102/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 111/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 117/2 |
| 21 | 8 | 125/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 127/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 130/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 133/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 136/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 140/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 143/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 147/4 |
| 29 | 10 | 157/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 161/4 |
| 31 | 6 | 167/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 172/5 |
| 33 | 9 | 181/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 184/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 190/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 192/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 195/5 |
| 38 | 10 | 205/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 213/5 |
| 40 | 1 | 214/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 218/8 |
| 42 | 3 | 221/8 |
| 43 | 6 | 227/8 |
| 44 | 3 | 230/8 |
| 45 | 4 | 234/8 |
| 46 | 11 | 245/8 |
| 47 | 6 | 251/8 |
| 48 | 7 | 258/8 |
| 49 | 4 | 262/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 262/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
