BahamasversusBermuda

23 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bermuda won by 10 wickets

Bahamas13.3 overs51/10 Bermuda8.5 overs55/0 Jimmy Powell Oval, Cayman Islands ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bermuda more likely to win

16%Bahamas84%Bermuda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bermuda rate stronger than Bahamas (1,569 vs 1,380 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Bermuda won 4 and Bahamas won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahamas started on 15%; Bahamas batted first.

Bahamas’s chance of winning (%) · Bermuda is the rest

Bahamas's chances ranged from 0% to 17% during the match (Bermuda: 83% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.4: J Proctor to M Taylor, M Taylor out. Bermuda up from 84% to 88%.
3.6: J Proctor to RA Tappin, RA Tappin out. Bermuda up from 88% to 91%.
6.4: DL Brangman to K Hinds, K Hinds out. Bermuda up from 88% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahamas51/10 Bermuda55/0

Innings 1

Bahamas

51/1013.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahamas batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Marc Taylorcaught · Delray Rawlins · J Proctor 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Delray Rawlins · b J Proctor	9	14	1	0	64.29
Festus Bennnot out 3 fours · 1 sixes	not out	32*	36	3	1	88.89
RA Tappincaught · Sinclair Smith · J Proctor 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sinclair Smith · b J Proctor	0	2	0	0	0.00
K Hindscaught · D Sabir · Derrick Brangman 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Sabir · b Derrick Brangman	3	6	0	0	50.00
R Davsoncaught · Delray Rawlins · D Sabir 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Delray Rawlins · b D Sabir	3	4	0	0	75.00
J Jemison

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Delray Rawlins0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	4	0	2.00	0
J Proctor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	20	2	6.67	0
Derrick Brangman0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	3	3.00	2
Kevon Fubler1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	7	2	3.50	0
D Sabir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	0	8	3	3.20	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	7	8/0
3	3	11/0
4	4	15/2
5	5	20/2
6	9	29/2
7	4	33/3
8	7	40/3
9	2	42/3
10	5	47/4
11	1	48/6
12	2	50/6
13	0	50/8
14	1	51/10

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