West IndiesversusNew Zealand

22 Nov 2025 · ODI

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 4 wickets

West Indies36.2 overs161/10 New Zealand30.3 overs162/6 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

13%West Indies87%New Zealand

Why

On results in ODIs so far, New Zealand rate stronger than West Indies (1,798 vs 1,538 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, New Zealand won 9 and West Indies won 1

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 12%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 23% during the match (New Zealand: 77% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.4: MJ Henry to AWJ Auguste, AWJ Auguste out. New Zealand up from 77% to 85%.
4.6: MJ Henry to KU Carty, KU Carty out. New Zealand up from 85% to 93%.
9.1: KA Jamieson to JD Campbell, JD Campbell out. New Zealand up from 85% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

West Indies161/10 New Zealand162/6

Innings 1

West Indies

161/1036.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
John Campbellcaught · Michael Bracewell · Kyle Jamieson 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Michael Bracewell · b Kyle Jamieson	26	24	3	1	108.33
Ackeem Augustecaught · Rachin Ravindra · Matt Henry 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Matt Henry	17	19	1	2	89.47
Keacy Cartybowled · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Matt Henry	0	2	0	0	0.00
Shai Hopecaught · Tom Latham · Zakary Foulkes 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tom Latham · b Zakary Foulkes	16	18	3	0	88.89
Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Mark Chapman · Jacob Duffy 3 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	9.2	0	43	4	4.61	0
Kyle Jamieson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	9.0	1	44	1	4.89	0
Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	1	3.25	3
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	0	27	2	3.86	1
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	27	2	4.50	0
Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	1	0	1.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	10	11/0
3	12	23/0
4	7	30/0
5	1	31/2
6	1	32/2
7	3	35/2
8	14	49/2
9	6	55/2
10	5	60/3
11	4	64/3
12	6	70/3
13	7	77/3
14	2	79/4
15	9	88/4
16	3	91/4
17	1	92/5
18	2	94/5
19	1	95/7
20	1	96/7
21	4	100/7
22	2	102/7
23	9	111/7
24	5	116/7
25	8	124/7
26	2	126/8
27	2	128/8
28	1	129/8
29	3	132/8
30	10	142/8
31	1	143/9
32	1	144/9
33	7	151/9
34	1	152/9
35	7	159/9
36	1	160/9
37	1	161/10

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