West IndiesversusNew Zealand

22 Nov 2025 · ODI

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 4 wickets

West Indies36.2 overs161/10 New Zealand30.3 overs162/6 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

13%West Indies87%New Zealand

Why

On results in ODIs so far, New Zealand rate stronger than West Indies (1,798 vs 1,538 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, New Zealand won 9 and West Indies won 1

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 12%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 23% during the match (New Zealand: 77% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.4: MJ Henry to AWJ Auguste, AWJ Auguste out. New Zealand up from 77% to 85%.
4.6: MJ Henry to KU Carty, KU Carty out. New Zealand up from 85% to 93%.
9.1: KA Jamieson to JD Campbell, JD Campbell out. New Zealand up from 85% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

West Indies161/10 New Zealand162/6

Innings 2

New Zealand

162/630.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Devon Conwaycaught · Keacy Carty · Jayden Seales 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Keacy Carty · b Jayden Seales	11	17	2	0	64.71
Rachin Ravindrabowled · Matthew Forde 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Matthew Forde	14	22	3	0	63.64
Will Youngcaught · Khary Pierre · Matthew Forde 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Khary Pierre · b Matthew Forde	3	11	0	0	27.27
Mark Chapmancaught · Khary Pierre · Jayden Seales 8 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Khary Pierre · b Jayden Seales	64	63	8	2	101.59

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matthew Forde1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	9.0	1	46	2	5.11	2
Jayden Seales1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	8.0	1	35	2	4.38	1
Shamar Springer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	1	4.00	2
Justin Greaves0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	0	33	0	6.60	2
Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.3	0	30	1	6.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	0	2/0
3	3	5/0
4	4	9/0
5	12	21/0
6	4	25/1
7	2	27/2
8	2	29/2
9	1	30/2
10	2	32/2
11	0	32/3
12	5	37/3
13	2	39/3
14	1	40/3
15	6	46/3
16	9	55/3
17	6	61/3
18	5	66/3
19	4	70/3
20	8	78/4
21	8	86/4
22	6	92/4
23	10	102/4
24	9	111/4
25	6	117/4
26	9	126/4
27	19	145/4
28	9	154/5
29	2	156/5
30	1	157/6
31	5	162/6

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