Hobart HurricanesversusSydney Thunder

27 Nov 2024 · T20

Drummoyne Oval, Sydney · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Thunder won by 6 wickets

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs126/6 Sydney Thunder19.0 overs129/4 Drummoyne Oval, Sydney ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 44%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.4: S Ismail to R Johnston, R Johnston out. Sydney Thunder up from 53% to 62%.
2nd inns 0.2: M Strano to G Voll, G Voll out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 25% to 37%.
2nd inns 5.5: H Graham to T Wilson, T Wilson out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 19% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes126/6 Sydney Thunder129/4

Innings 1