NamibiaversusOman

7 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 62 runs

Namibia20.0 overs212/3 Oman18.3 overs150/10 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

42%Namibia58%Oman

Why

Oman are playing at home in Oman
On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Namibia (1,604 vs 1,585 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 40%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 61%).

Biggest swings

9.4: Mehran Khan to JP Kotze, JP Kotze out. Oman up from 34% to 40%.
18.2: Rafiullah to MG Erasmus, six by MG Erasmus. Namibia up from 75% to 82%.
2nd inns 9.4: MG Erasmus to Naseem Khushi, Naseem Khushi out. Namibia up from 75% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia212/3 Oman150/10

Innings 2

Oman

150/1018.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kashyap Prajapatilbw · David Wiese 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b David Wiese	2	6	0	0	33.33
Naseem Khushirun out · Gerhard Erasmus, Zane Green · Gerhard Erasmus 3 fours · 4 sixes	run out · Gerhard Erasmus, Zane Green	49	28	3	4	175.00
Aaqib Ilyascaught · Jan Frylinck · Bernard Scholtz 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Jan Frylinck · b Bernard Scholtz	51	29	5	2	175.86
Zeeshan Maqsoodcaught · David Wiese · Tangeni Lungameni 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · David Wiese · b Tangeni Lungameni	5	4	1	0	125.00
Ayan Khancaught · Jack Brassell · Gerhard Erasmus 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jack Brassell · b Gerhard Erasmus	3	4	0	0	75.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	2
David Wiese0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	1	7.33	0
Jack Brassell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	22	1	8.80	0
Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	32	0	16.00	1
Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	4	5.00	0
Tangeni Lungameni0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	1	9.00	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	9	16/1
3	12	28/1
4	12	40/1
5	6	46/1
6	20	66/1
7	10	76/1
8	10	86/1
9	9	95/1
10	6	101/2
11	7	108/3
12	6	114/5
13	4	118/6
14	3	121/8
15	11	132/8
16	2	134/8
17	7	141/8
18	7	148/9
19	2	150/10

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