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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier B · 2025/26 · Men
8 Mar 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Mexico more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Mexico started on 61%; Mexico batted first.
Mexico's chances ranged from 12% to 97% during the match (Suriname: 3% to 88%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Bharrattcaught · D Panda · Pratik Singh Bais 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Panda · b Pratik Singh Bais | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| V Hirlalrun out · Gurpreet Singh (2), D Panda · Gurpreet Singh (2) 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Gurpreet Singh (2), D Panda | 13 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 59.09 |
| Troy Dudnathcaught · Amir Butt · Gurpreet Singh (2) 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Amir Butt · b Gurpreet Singh (2) | 18 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 75.00 |
| Gavin Singhbowled · Amir Butt 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Amir Butt | 17 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 68.00 |
| Arun Gokoelcaught · Kaushal Kumar · D Panda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaushal Kumar · b D Panda | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| bowled · b Gurpreet Singh (2) |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| XSD Smithnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 20 | 0 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Vishwar Shawcaught · Shoaib Rafiq · Amir Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shoaib Rafiq · b Amir Butt | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
|---|
| YP Dayalcaught · R Galgalikar · Shoaib Rafiq 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Galgalikar · b Shoaib Rafiq | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| K Jaikarannot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratik Singh Bais0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Shoaib Rafiq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Gurpreet Singh (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| J Byrappa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| D Panda0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 3.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Amir Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (S Bharratt, 0.2) · 2-30 (V Hirlal, 7.4) · 3-32 (Troy Dudnath, 8.0) · 4-43 (Arun Gokoel, 10.3) · 5-46 (J Perry, 11.3) · 6-61 (Gavin Singh, 15.1) · 7-70 (Vishwar Shaw, 17.2) · 8-75 (YP Dayal, 18.2)
Recorded target: 98 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 9 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 32/3 |
| 9 | 8 | 40/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 42/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 45/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 48/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 51/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 57/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 61/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 65/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 69/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 75/7 |
| 19 | 6 | 81/8 |
| 20 | 7 | 88/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.