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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
24 Jul 2024 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographNamibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 65%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS Athavalecaught · Ben Shikongo · Tangeni Lungameni 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Shikongo · b Tangeni Lungameni | 18 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Kashyap Prajapaticaught · Lo-handre Louwrens · Ben Shikongo 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lo-handre Louwrens · b Ben Shikongo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aaqib Ilyascaught · JJ Smit · Jack Brassell 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b Jack Brassell | 68 | 129 | 5 | 1 | 52.71 |
| Zeeshan Maqsoodlbw · Jack Brassell 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jack Brassell | 15 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 48.39 |
| Ayan Khanrun out · Gerhard Erasmus · Bernard Scholtz 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Gerhard Erasmus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Namibia's chances ranged from 1% to 74% during the match (Oman: 26% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Gerhard Erasmus, Jean-Pierre Kotze |
| 43 |
| 55 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 78.18 |
| Shoaib Khannot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 26* | 38 | 4 | 0 | 68.42 |
|---|
| Fiaz Bhuttnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 4.88 | 5 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 3 | 0 |
| Tangeni Lungameni1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 3.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 3.16 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Frylinck0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Kashyap Prajapati, 0.2) · 2-53 (PS Athavale, 10.0) · 3-94 (Zeeshan Maqsood, 21.0) · 4-94 (Ayan Khan, 21.2) · 5-158 (Khalid Kail, 38.2) · 6-170 (Aaqib Ilyas, 43.3)
Recorded target: 197 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 9 | 15/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 31/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 36/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 41/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 45/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 49/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 53/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 54/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 56/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 60/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 61/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 66/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 76/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 80/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 83/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 89/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 94/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 96/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 100/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 107/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 108/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 111/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 113/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 115/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 118/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 122/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 124/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 131/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 133/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 140/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 144/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 148/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 149/4 |
| 38 | 9 | 158/4 |
| 39 | 0 | 158/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 165/5 |
| 41 | 0 | 165/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 166/5 |
| 43 | 1 | 167/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 171/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 176/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 181/6 |
| 47 | 7 | 188/6 |
| 48 | 2 | 190/6 |
| 49 | 6 | 196/6 |
| 50 | 1 | 197/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
