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Photo: Gihan Jayaweera
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
12 Feb 2026 · T20
Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 55%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankalbw · Sufyan Mehmood 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sufyan Mehmood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 118.18 |
| Kamil Misharabowled · Jay Odedra 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jay Odedra | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 114.29 |
| Kusal Mendisrun out · Vinayak Shukla, Jiten Ramanandi · Jiten Ramanandi 7 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Vinayak Shukla, Jiten Ramanandi | 61 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 135.56 |
| Pavan Rathnayakebowled · Jiten Ramanandi 8 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Jiten Ramanandi | 60 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 214.29 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Nadeem Khan (2) · Jiten Ramanandi 2 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Nadeem Khan (2) · b Jiten Ramanandi | 50 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 250.00 |
| not out |
| 19* |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 271.43 |
| Dunith Wellalagenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shah Faisal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Odedra0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 14.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Wasim Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 12.67 | 0 | 2 |
| Sufyan Mehmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nadeem Khan (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jiten Ramanandi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 10.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-15 (Kamil Mishara, 1.4) · 2-42 (Pathum Nissanka, 5.1) · 3-136 (Pavan Rathnayake, 13.3) · 4-199 (Dasun Shanaka, 18.1) · 5-200 (Kusal Mendis, 18.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 23/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 13 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 42/1 |
| 6 | 16 | 58/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 63/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 71/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 79/2 |
| 10 | 17 | 96/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 102/2 |
| 12 | 12 | 114/2 |
| 13 | 19 | 133/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 139/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 146/3 |
| 16 | 14 | 160/3 |
| 17 | 20 | 180/3 |
| 18 | 19 | 199/3 |
| 19 | 9 | 208/5 |
| 20 | 17 | 225/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.