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Photo: Gihan Jayaweera
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
12 Feb 2026 · T20
Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 55%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aamir Kaleemlbw · Mahesh Theekshana 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Jatinder Singhbowled · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Hammad Mirzacaught · Kamil Mishara · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamil Mishara · b Dushmantha Chameera | 9 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Mohammad Nadeemnot out 3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 53* | 56 | 3 | 1 | 94.64 |
| Wasim Alicaught · Kusal Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana | 27 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 135.00 |
| run out · Kamil Mishara |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Jiten Ramanandistumped · Kusal Mendis · Dushan Hemantha 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Dushan Hemantha | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nadeem Khan (2)caught · Dushmantha Chameera · Kamindu Mendis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dushmantha Chameera · b Kamindu Mendis | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Sufyan Mehmoodrun out · Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis · Kamindu Mendis 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Shah Faisalcaught · Pathum Nissanka · Dunith Wellalage 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Dunith Wellalage | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| Jay Odedranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 13 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 9.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushan Hemantha0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 11.25 | 5 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 1 |
1-12 (Jatinder Singh, 1.0) · 2-12 (Aamir Kaleem, 1.1) · 3-36 (Hammad Mirza, 5.5) · 4-78 (Wasim Ali, 11.5) · 5-79 (Vinayak Shukla, 12.0) · 6-91 (Jiten Ramanandi, 12.4) · 7-95 (Nadeem Khan (2), 13.2) · 8-100 (Sufyan Mehmood, 14.0) · 9-109 (Shah Faisal, 16.2)
Recorded target: 226 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 15/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 19/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 22/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 29/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 36/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 49/3 |
| 9 | 10 | 59/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 61/3 |
| 11 | 14 | 75/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 79/5 |
| 13 | 14 | 93/6 |
| 14 | 7 | 100/8 |
| 15 | 7 | 107/8 |
| 16 | 1 | 108/8 |
| 17 | 1 | 109/9 |
| 18 | 3 | 112/9 |
| 19 | 3 | 115/9 |
| 20 | 5 | 120/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.