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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
17 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
France more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
France started on 72%; France batted first.
France's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Croatia: 0% to 28%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Houghtoncaught · Nasibullah Arab · Dawood Ahmadzai 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nasibullah Arab · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 11 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 91.67 |
| CM Carrollcaught · Dawood Ahmadzai · Usman Khan 5 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Dawood Ahmadzai · b Usman Khan | 71 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 208.82 |
| Rashid Hashmicaught · HA Jackson · Mohammad Khan Rafah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HA Jackson · b Mohammad Khan Rafah | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| JR Newtoncaught · Abdurrahman Ahmadzai · Mohammad Khan Rafah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdurrahman Ahmadzai · b Mohammad Khan Rafah | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| A Razmiliccaught · HA Jackson · Usman Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HA Jackson · b Usman Khan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.00 |
| DJ Hallcaught · Nasibullah Arab · Usman Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nasibullah Arab · b Usman Khan | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 56.25 |
|---|
| N Davidovicbowled · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Oliver Tilleybowled · Usman Khan 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Usman Khan | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| M Separovicrun out · Nasibullah Arab, HA Jackson · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nasibullah Arab, HA Jackson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| A Curaviccaught · Noman Amjad · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noman Amjad · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Sajid Khan (2)not out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdurrahman Ahmadzai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Noman Amjad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| G Mckeon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zada Sher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Khan Rafah0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Usman Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 5.45 | 0 | 0 |
1-27 (S Houghton, 3.1) · 2-74 (Rashid Hashmi, 7.3) · 3-97 (CM Carroll, 10.4) · 4-97 (A Razmilic, 10.5) · 5-97 (JR Newton, 11.1) · 6-110 (N Davidovic, 14.0) · 7-114 (DJ Hall, 15.0) · 8-114 (M Separovic, 15.1) · 9-116 (A Curavic, 15.5) · 10-126 (Oliver Tilley, 16.4)
Recorded target: 209 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 5 | 19 | 50/1 |
| 6 | 19 | 69/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 73/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 76/2 |
| 9 | 13 | 89/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 94/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 97/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 102/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 107/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 110/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 114/7 |
| 16 | 2 | 116/9 |
| 17 | 10 | 126/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.