Washington FreedomversusMI New York

16 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 94 runs

Washington Freedom20.0 overs182/5 MI New York13.3 overs88/10 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 51%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · MI New York is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (MI New York: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

4.2: Rashid Khan to SPD Smith, SPD Smith out. MI New York up from 37% to 46%.
2nd inns 0.3: M Jansen to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Washington Freedom up from 78% to 86%.
2nd inns 1.5: Jasdeep Singh to MD Patel, MD Patel out. Washington Freedom up from 83% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.