NepalversusMalaysia

Nepal more likely to win

Why

• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 7 and Malaysia won 3
• Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Malaysia (1,553 vs 1,523 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Nepal started on 55%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal's chances ranged from 15% to 90% during the match (Malaysia: 10% to 86%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 19.1: K Kunwar to Siow Tzin Yee, four by Siow Tzin Yee. Malaysia up from 18% to 42%.
2. 2nd inns 19.3: K Kunwar to Siow Tzin Yee, four by Siow Tzin Yee. Malaysia up from 32% to 71%.
3. 2nd inns 19.4: K Kunwar to Siow Tzin Yee, 2 runs to Siow Tzin Yee. Malaysia up from 71% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.