Barbados RoyalsversusSt Lucia Kings

21 Sept 2024 · T20

Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Lucia Kings won by 7 wickets

Barbados Royals20.0 overs96/9 St Lucia Kings13.5 overs97/3 Providence Stadium, Guyana ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Barbados Royals started on 50%; Barbados Royals batted first.

Barbados Royals’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

Barbados Royals's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 48% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.1: AS Joseph to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. St Lucia Kings up from 49% to 60%.
2.1: RL Chase to K Alleyne, K Alleyne out. St Lucia Kings up from 64% to 80%.
3.1: AS Joseph to R Powell, R Powell out. St Lucia Kings up from 70% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.