MalaysiaversusHong Kong

28 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 34 runs

Malaysia20.0 overs103/6 Hong Kong18.2 overs69/10 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

10%Malaysia90%Hong Kong

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Malaysia (1,606 vs 1,298 on our results rating)
In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 8 and Malaysia won 1
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 9%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (Hong Kong: 0% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.1: WA Duraisingam to SYD Chan, SYD Chan out. Malaysia up from 30% to 45%.
2nd inns 9.5: Ainna Hamizah Hashim to A Cheung, A Cheung out. Malaysia up from 41% to 65%.
2nd inns 12.3: Siow Tzin Yee to WK Lai, WK Lai out. Malaysia up from 64% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia103/6 Hong Kong69/10

Innings 2

Hong Kong

69/1018.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Natasha Milescaught · Aina Najwa · Nur Dania Syuhada 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aina Najwa · b Nur Dania Syuhada	6	6	1	0	100.00
Shanzeen Shahzadbowled · Nur Dania Syuhada 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nur Dania Syuhada	0	2	0	0	0.00
SYD Chanlbw · Winifred Duraisingam 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Winifred Duraisingam	13	21	0	0	61.90
Kary Chancaught · Mahirah Ismail · Nur Dania Syuhada 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mahirah Ismail · b Nur Dania Syuhada	7	7	1	0	100.00
M Bibilbw · Ainna Hamizah Hashim 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ainna Hamizah Hashim	17	33	0	0	51.52

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nur Dania Syuhada0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	3	4.50	1
Aisya Eleesa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	2
Winifred Duraisingam0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	2	3.75	2
Elsa Hunter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	1	3.50	0
Ainna Hamizah Hashim1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	9	3	2.25	1
Mahirah Ismail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.2	0	4	1	3.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	9	14/1
3	2	16/2
4	3	19/2
5	8	27/3
6	4	31/3
7	3	34/3
8	6	40/4
9	2	42/4
10	3	45/5
11	3	48/5
12	4	52/5
13	4	56/6
14	0	56/7
15	5	61/7
16	2	63/8
17	4	67/8
18	2	69/9
19	0	69/10

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