IndiaversusWest Indies

9 Oct 2026 · T20

JSCA International Stadium Complex, Ranchi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 6 wickets

India20.0 overs249/5 West Indies18.3 overs252/4 JSCA International Stadium Complex, Ranchi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

85%India15%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than West Indies (1,817 vs 1,611 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and West Indies won 3
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 83%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

India's chances ranged from 0% to 99% during the match (West Indies: 1% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.6: AR Patel to R Shepherd, six by R Shepherd. West Indies up from 21% to 37%.
2nd inns 16.1: Kuldeep Yadav to SD Hope, six by SD Hope. West Indies up from 37% to 51%.
2nd inns 16.2: Kuldeep Yadav to SD Hope, six by SD Hope. West Indies up from 51% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.