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West Indies tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
6 Nov 2025 · T20
Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 64%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 47%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Robinsonbowled · Romario Shepherd 5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Romario Shepherd | 39 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 156.00 |
| Devon Conwaybowled · Matthew Forde 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Forde | 16 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 66.67 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Shai Hope · Roston Chase0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Roston Chase | 11 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 73.33 |
| Mark Chapmancaught and bowled · Jason Holder 6 fours · 7 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jason Holder | 78 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 278.57 |
| Daryl Mitchellnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 28* | 14 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 200.00 |
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Matthew Forde · Roston Chase 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Forde · b Roston Chase | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnernot out 0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 18* | 8 | 0 | 2 | 225.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Seales0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 15.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Jason Holder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 12.67 | 2 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 23.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-55 (Devon Conway, 7.1) · 2-59 (Tim Robinson, 8.2) · 3-107 (Rachin Ravindra, 13.1) · 4-164 (Mark Chapman, 16.1) · 5-169 (Michael Bracewell, 17.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 14 | 45/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 47/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 55/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 59/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 63/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 72/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 81/2 |
| 13 | 26 | 107/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 117/3 |
| 15 | 23 | 140/3 |
| 16 | 23 | 163/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 169/4 |
| 18 | 8 | 177/5 |
| 19 | 11 | 188/5 |
| 20 | 19 | 207/5 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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