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West Indies tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
6 Nov 2025 · T20
Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 64%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 47%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Devon Conway · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Jacob Duffy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Alick Athanazecaught · Jacob Duffy · Ish Sodhi 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Jacob Duffy · b Ish Sodhi | 33 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 132.00 |
 Shai Hopebowled · Mitchell Santner2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Santner | 24 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 92.31 |
| Ackeem Augustecaught · Mark Chapman · Ish Sodhi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Chapman · b Ish Sodhi | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
 |
| bowled · b Ish Sodhi |
| 16 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 200.00 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Mark Chapman · Kyle Jamieson 1 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Mark Chapman · b Kyle Jamieson | 45 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 281.25 |
|---|
 Roston Chasecaught · Mark Chapman · Mitchell Santner1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Chapman · b Mitchell Santner | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Michael Bracewell · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Mitchell Santner | 34 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 212.50 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordenot out 2 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 29* | 13 | 2 | 2 | 223.08 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Duffy1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 12.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 18.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 9.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Brandon King, 0.3) · 2-49 (Alick Athanaze, 7.2) · 3-68 (Ackeem Auguste, 9.3) · 4-74 (Shai Hope, 10.5) · 5-86 (Jason Holder, 11.4) · 6-93 (Roston Chase, 12.5) · 7-155 (Romario Shepherd, 16.5) · 8-202 (Rovman Powell, 19.4)
Recorded target: 208 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 14 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 36/1 |
| 7 | 13 | 49/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 54/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 63/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 71/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 74/4 |
| 12 | 17 | 91/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 94/6 |
| 14 | 13 | 107/6 |
| 15 | 10 | 117/6 |
| 16 | 24 | 141/6 |
| 17 | 15 | 156/7 |
| 18 | 22 | 178/7 |
| 19 | 14 | 192/7 |
| 20 | 12 | 204/8 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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