ThailandversusBhutan

25 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 7 runs

Thailand20.0 overs117/5 Bhutan20.0 overs110/6 West End Park International Cricket Stadium, Doha ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

77%Thailand23%Bhutan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Bhutan (1,500 vs 1,321 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 3 and Bhutan won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 75%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Bhutan is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 33% to 93% during the match (Bhutan: 7% to 67%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.6: N Salekar to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Thailand up from 50% to 66%.
2nd inns 18.4: Sarawut Maliwan to RM Dorji, six by RM Dorji. Bhutan up from 25% to 50%.
2nd inns 18.6: Sarawut Maliwan to S Loday, 0 runs to S Loday. Thailand up from 59% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand117/5 Bhutan110/6

Innings 2

Bhutan

110/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Pradhanlbw · Kamron Senamontree 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kamron Senamontree	1	3	0	0	33.33
Tenjin Rabgeycaught · S Desungnoen · N Salekar 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Desungnoen · b N Salekar	11	16	2	0	68.75
Thinley Jamtshocaught · Y Saranonnakkun · N Salekar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Y Saranonnakkun · b N Salekar	2	4	0	0	50.00
J Singyecaught · Austin Lazarus · Nopphon Senamontree 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Austin Lazarus · b Nopphon Senamontree	21	34	1	0	61.76
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjirun out · Akshaykumar Yadav · Austin Lazarus 2 fours · 3 sixes	run out · Akshaykumar Yadav	51	39	2	3	130.77

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
N Salekar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	7	2	2.33	1	0
Kamron Senamontree0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	1	7.00	0	0
Nopphon Senamontree1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	8	1	2.00	0	0
Sarawut Maliwan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	31	0	7.75	2	0
Austin Lazarus0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	14	0	4.67	0	1
Chanchai Pengkumta0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	1	0
S Desungnoen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	21	0	7.00	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	10	12/1
3	3	15/2
4	2	17/2
5	3	20/3
6	1	21/3
7	4	25/3
8	4	29/3
9	7	36/3
10	4	40/3
11	12	52/3
12	7	59/3
13	0	59/4
14	4	63/4
15	5	68/4
16	10	78/4
17	6	84/4
18	4	88/4
19	16	104/4
20	6	110/6

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