ScotlandversusIreland

13 Jun 2026 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Scotland won by 40 runs

Scotland20.0 overs161/5 Ireland19.1 overs121/10 Old Trafford ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%Scotland51%Ireland

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Ireland won 6 and Scotland won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Ireland (1,713 vs 1,697 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 43%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

4.3: A Canning to K Fraser, K Fraser out. Ireland up from 46% to 55%.
5.3: AK Maguire to DEM Carter, DEM Carter out. Ireland up from 53% to 61%.
2nd inns 0.6: KE Bryce to A Dalzell, A Dalzell out. Scotland up from 57% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland161/5 Ireland121/10

Innings 2

Ireland

121/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Hunterbowled · Katherine Fraser 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Katherine Fraser	39	36	5	0	108.33
Alana Dalzellcaught and bowled · Kathryn Bryce 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Kathryn Bryce	6	5	1	0	120.00
Gaby Lewisstumped · Sarah Bryce · Katherine Fraser 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Sarah Bryce · b Katherine Fraser	11	19	1	0	57.89
Orla Prendergastrun out · Darcey Carter, Sarah Bryce · Rachel Slater 4 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Darcey Carter, Sarah Bryce	33	23	4	1	143.48
Rebecca Stokellbowled · Kirstie Gordon 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kirstie Gordon	2	3	0	0	66.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	19	2	6.00	0
G Fontenla0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	1
Rachel Slater0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	0	6.00	0
Kirstie Gordon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	3	4.00	0
Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75	0
Chloe Abel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	2
Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	3	10/1
3	2	12/1
4	15	27/1
5	1	28/1
6	3	31/1
7	4	35/1
8	6	41/2
9	3	44/2
10	14	58/2
11	8	66/2
12	2	68/3
13	2	70/6
14	7	77/6
15	8	85/6
16	11	96/6
17	13	109/7
18	4	113/9
19	8	121/9
20	0	121/10

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