Sri LankaversusZimbabwe

16 Jan 2024 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 4 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs173/6 Zimbabwe19.5 overs178/6 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

73%Sri Lanka27%Zimbabwe

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 3 and Zimbabwe won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,542 vs 1,488 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 71%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 11% to 96% during the match (Zimbabwe: 4% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.1: AD Mathews to LM Jongwe, four by LM Jongwe. Zimbabwe up from 4% to 43%.
2nd inns 19.2: AD Mathews to LM Jongwe, six by LM Jongwe. Zimbabwe up from 43% to 89%.
2nd inns 19.5: AD Mathews to C Madande, six by C Madande. Zimbabwe up from 81% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka173/6 Zimbabwe178/6

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

173/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankacaught · Luke Jongwe · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Luke Jongwe · b Blessing Muzarabani	1	7	0	0	14.29
Kusal Mendiscaught · Ryan Burl · Luke Jongwe 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ryan Burl · b Luke Jongwe	4	5	1	0	80.00
Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Ryan Burl · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ryan Burl · b Blessing Muzarabani	0	1	0	0	0.00
Sadeera Samarawickramacaught · Clive Madande · Wellington Masakadza 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Clive Madande · b Wellington Masakadza	16	12	2	0	133.33
Charith Asalankacaught · Sean Williams · Luke Jongwe 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Sean Williams · b Luke Jongwe	69

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	2	9.00	1
Luke Jongwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	32	2	16.00	0
Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	1	8.33	1
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	0	6.25	0
Sean Williams0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	5

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	1	2/2
3	9	11/2
4	13	24/3
5	4	28/4
6	3	31/4
7	3	34/4
8	9	43/4
9	8	51/4
10	7	58/4
11	4	62/4
12	2	64/4
13	12	76/4
14	7	83/4
15	18	101/4
16	20	121/4
17	9	130/4
18	19	149/5
19	11	160/6
20	13	173/6

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