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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Zimbabwe tour of Sri Lanka · 2023/24 · Men
16 Jan 2024 · T20
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 71%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 11% to 96% during the match (Zimbabwe: 4% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinashe Kamunhukamwecaught · Wanindu Hasaranga · Dilshan Madushanka 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Dilshan Madushanka | 12 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 92.31 |
 Craig Ervinecaught · Mahesh Theekshana · Wanindu Hasaranga6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Mahesh Theekshana · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 70 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 129.63 |
| Brian Bennettbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 25 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 125.00 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Sadeera Samarawickrama · Dushmantha Chameera2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sadeera Samarawickrama · b Dushmantha Chameera | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 160.00 |
 Sean Williamsbowled · Mahesh Theekshana0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Ryan Burlcaught · Kusal Mendis · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dushmantha Chameera | 13 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 144.44 |
|---|
| Luke Jongwenot out 2 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 25* | 12 | 2 | 2 | 208.33 |
|---|
 Clive Madandenot out0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 15* | 5 | 0 | 2 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 1 | 1 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 10.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Angelo Mathews0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.5 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 19.09 | 1 | 1 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Tinashe Kamunhukamwe, 3.4) · 2-96 (Brian Bennett, 12.3) · 3-105 (Sikandar Raza, 13.3) · 4-112 (Sean Williams, 14.3) · 5-131 (Craig Ervine, 16.5) · 6-143 (Ryan Burl, 17.4)
Recorded target: 174 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 39/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 48/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 59/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 69/1 |
| 11 | 13 | 82/1 |
| 12 | 13 | 95/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 100/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 107/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 114/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 121/4 |
| 17 | 11 | 132/5 |
| 18 | 12 | 144/6 |
| 19 | 10 | 154/6 |
| 20 | 24 | 178/6 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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