Washington FreedomversusLos Angeles Knight Riders

17 Jun 2025 · T20

Oakland Coliseum, Oakland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 113 runs

Washington Freedom20.0 overs208/5 Los Angeles Knight Riders16.3 overs95/10 Oakland Coliseum, Oakland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 60%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · Los Angeles Knight Riders is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Los Angeles Knight Riders: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

3.6: CA Dry to AGS Gous, AGS Gous out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 27% to 39%.
7.2: T Sangha to J Edwards, J Edwards out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 38% to 49%.
11.4: T Sangha to MS Chapman, MS Chapman out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 45% to 56%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Washington Freedom208/5 Los Angeles Knight Riders95/10

Innings 1