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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Region Final · 2025/26 · Men
26 Sept 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 51%; Namibia batted first.
Namibia's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 58%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhiren Gondariacaught · Gerhard Erasmus · Ben Shikongo 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b Ben Shikongo | 11 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 91.67 |
 Pushkar Sharmacaught · JJ Smit · A Busing-Volschenk1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b A Busing-Volschenk | 8 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 44.44 |
 Sukhdeep Singhbowled · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 34 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 94.44 |
 Rakep Patelcaught · Zane Green · A Busing-Volschenk0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zane Green · b A Busing-Volschenk |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Sachin Bhudialbw · Bernard Scholtz 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Bernard Scholtz | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Jasraj Kundibowled · Bernard Scholtz 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Bernard Scholtz | 17 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 106.25 |
|---|
| Sachin Gillbowled · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Lucas Oluochnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 4 | 0 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
 Vishil Patelnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| JJ Smit0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| A Busing-Volschenk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Dhiren Gondaria, 3.1) · 2-43 (Pushkar Sharma, 7.1) · 3-45 (Rakep Patel, 8.0) · 4-52 (Sachin Bhudia, 10.3) · 5-77 (Sukhdeep Singh, 14.2) · 6-91 (Sachin Gill, 16.5) · 7-91 (Jasraj Kundi, 17.1)
Recorded target: 242 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 31/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 43/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 45/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 47/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 50/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 54/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 61/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 66/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 76/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 78/5 |
| 16 | 7 | 85/5 |
| 17 | 6 | 91/6 |
| 18 | 2 | 93/7 |
| 19 | 10 | 103/7 |
| 20 | 2 | 105/7 |
Pushkar Sharma: SAKSHI0989 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vishil Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Shikongo: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sukhdeep Singh: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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