LeicestershireversusNottinghamshire

6 Jul 2025 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 1 wickets

Leicestershire20.0 overs188/2 Nottinghamshire19.5 overs189/9 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Leicestershire started on 48%; Leicestershire batted first.

Leicestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Nottinghamshire is the rest

Leicestershire's chances ranged from 2% to 82% during the match (Nottinghamshire: 18% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.5: LPJ Kimber to MC Henriques, MC Henriques out. Leicestershire up from 53% to 68%.
2nd inns 19.4: LV van Beek to LA Patterson-White, LA Patterson-White out. Leicestershire up from 12% to 29%.
2nd inns 19.5: LV van Beek to Farhan Ahmed, 2 runs to Farhan Ahmed. Nottinghamshire up from 71% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.