Hobart HurricanesversusAdelaide Strikers

11 Jan 2024 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 8 wickets

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs167/6 Adelaide Strikers15.5 overs169/2 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 52%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Adelaide Strikers is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (Adelaide Strikers: 43% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.2: J Overton to MS Wade, MS Wade out. Adelaide Strikers up from 49% to 60%.
2nd inns 6.3: Nikhil Chaudhary to DJM Short, DJM Short out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 27% to 39%.
2nd inns 7.2: CJ Jordan to MW Short, MW Short out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 39% to 51%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes167/6 Adelaide Strikers169/2

Innings 1