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Photo: CAPTAIN RAJU
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Sri Lanka tour of Bangladesh · 2023/24 · Men
30 Mar 2024 · Test
Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nishan Madushkarun out · Hasan Mahmud, Litton Das · Mehedi Hasan 6 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Hasan Mahmud, Litton Das | 57 | 105 | 6 | 0 | 54.29 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnebowled · Hasan Mahmud8 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Hasan Mahmud | 86 | 129 | 8 | 1 | 66.67 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Mehedi Hasan · Shakib Al Hasan 11 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Shakib Al Hasan | 93 | 150 | 11 | 1 | 62.00 |
 Angelo Mathewscaught · Mehedi Hasan · Hasan Mahmud2 fours · 1 sixes |
| caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Hasan Mahmud |
| 23 |
| 71 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 32.39 |
 Dinesh Chandimalcaught · Litton Das · Shakib Al Hasan5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Shakib Al Hasan | 59 | 104 | 5 | 2 | 56.73 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvalbw · Khaled Ahmed 6 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Khaled Ahmed | 70 | 111 | 6 | 2 | 63.06 |
|---|
| Kamindu Mendisnot out 7 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 92* | 167 | 7 | 2 | 55.09 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyalbw · Shakib Al Hasan 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shakib Al Hasan | 28 | 75 | 3 | 0 | 37.33 |
|---|
 Vishwa Fernandorun out · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Shakib Al Hasan2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Najmul Hossain Shanto | 11 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 42.31 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumarabowled · Mehedi Hasan 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mehedi Hasan | 6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandorun out · Taijul Islam · Taijul Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Taijul Islam | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Khaled Ahmed2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 2 | 71 | 1 | 3.55 | 0 | 0 |
 Hasan Mahmud5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.0 | 5 | 92 | 2 | 3.83 | 0 | 0 |
 Shakib Al Hasan5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 37.0 | 5 | 110 | 3 | 2.97 | 0 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan7 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 46.0 | 7 | 146 | 1 | 3.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Taijul Islam6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 32.0 | 6 | 106 | 0 | 3.31 | 0 | 0 |
1-96 (Nishan Madushka, 28.5) · 2-210 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 55.1) · 3-263 (Kusal Mendis, 71.3) · 4-289 (Angelo Mathews, 81.0) · 5-375 (Dinesh Chandimal, 105.2) · 6-411 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 118.3) · 7-476 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 141.5) · 8-497 (Vishwa Fernando, 151.5) · 9-518 (Lahiru Kumara, 156.3) · 10-531 (Asitha Fernando, 159.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 13/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 19/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 24/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 29/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 37/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 42/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 45/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 49/0 |
| 14 | 1 | 50/0 |
| 15 | 3 | 53/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 56/0 |
| 17 | 0 | 56/0 |
| 18 | 4 | 60/0 |
| 19 | 1 | 61/0 |
| 20 | 4 | 65/0 |
| 21 | 2 | 67/0 |
| 22 | 9 | 76/0 |
| 23 | 3 | 79/0 |
| 24 | 2 | 81/0 |
| 25 | 2 | 83/0 |
| 26 | 0 | 83/0 |
| 27 | 5 | 88/0 |
| 28 | 2 | 90/0 |
| 29 | 10 | 100/1 |
| 30 | 1 | 101/1 |
| 31 | 4 | 105/1 |
| 32 | 0 | 105/1 |
| 33 | 4 | 109/1 |
| 34 | 0 | 109/1 |
| 35 | 4 | 113/1 |
| 36 | 0 | 113/1 |
| 37 | 6 | 119/1 |
| 38 | 6 | 125/1 |
| 39 | 3 | 128/1 |
| 40 | 3 | 131/1 |
| 41 | 14 | 145/1 |
| 42 | 1 | 146/1 |
| 43 | 5 | 151/1 |
| 44 | 4 | 155/1 |
| 45 | 2 | 157/1 |
| 46 | 8 | 165/1 |
| 47 | 1 | 166/1 |
| 48 | 2 | 168/1 |
| 49 | 2 | 170/1 |
| 50 | 7 | 177/1 |
| 51 | 2 | 179/1 |
| 52 | 9 | 188/1 |
| 53 | 11 | 199/1 |
| 54 | 6 | 205/1 |
| 55 | 5 | 210/1 |
| 56 | 0 | 210/2 |
| 57 | 2 | 212/2 |
| 58 | 2 | 214/2 |
| 59 | 1 | 215/2 |
| 60 | 6 | 221/2 |
| 61 | 0 | 221/2 |
| 62 | 13 | 234/2 |
| 63 | 8 | 242/2 |
| 64 | 2 | 244/2 |
| 65 | 0 | 244/2 |
| 66 | 2 | 246/2 |
| 67 | 6 | 252/2 |
| 68 | 1 | 253/2 |
| 69 | 4 | 257/2 |
| 70 | 1 | 258/2 |
| 71 | 5 | 263/2 |
| 72 | 1 | 264/3 |
| 73 | 1 | 265/3 |
| 74 | 10 | 275/3 |
| 75 | 0 | 275/3 |
| 76 | 1 | 276/3 |
| 77 | 2 | 278/3 |
| 78 | 2 | 280/3 |
| 79 | 9 | 289/3 |
| 80 | 0 | 289/3 |
| 81 | 0 | 289/4 |
| 82 | 2 | 291/4 |
| 83 | 3 | 294/4 |
| 84 | 1 | 295/4 |
| 85 | 8 | 303/4 |
| 86 | 4 | 307/4 |
| 87 | 2 | 309/4 |
| 88 | 0 | 309/4 |
| 89 | 0 | 309/4 |
| 90 | 5 | 314/4 |
| 91 | 0 | 314/4 |
| 92 | 4 | 318/4 |
| 93 | 4 | 322/4 |
| 94 | 5 | 327/4 |
| 95 | 4 | 331/4 |
| 96 | 7 | 338/4 |
| 97 | 2 | 340/4 |
| 98 | 3 | 343/4 |
| 99 | 7 | 350/4 |
| 100 | 3 | 353/4 |
| 101 | 9 | 362/4 |
| 102 | 6 | 368/4 |
| 103 | 1 | 369/4 |
| 104 | 1 | 370/4 |
| 105 | 5 | 375/4 |
| 106 | 0 | 375/5 |
| 107 | 5 | 380/5 |
| 108 | 5 | 385/5 |
| 109 | 1 | 386/5 |
| 110 | 9 | 395/5 |
| 111 | 3 | 398/5 |
| 112 | 3 | 401/5 |
| 113 | 1 | 402/5 |
| 114 | 6 | 408/5 |
| 115 | 0 | 408/5 |
| 116 | 0 | 408/5 |
| 117 | 1 | 409/5 |
| 118 | 2 | 411/5 |
| 119 | 4 | 415/6 |
| 120 | 2 | 417/6 |
| 121 | 2 | 419/6 |
| 122 | 3 | 422/6 |
| 123 | 2 | 424/6 |
| 124 | 4 | 428/6 |
| 125 | 2 | 430/6 |
| 126 | 3 | 433/6 |
| 127 | 3 | 436/6 |
| 128 | 0 | 436/6 |
| 129 | 1 | 437/6 |
| 130 | 1 | 438/6 |
| 131 | 1 | 439/6 |
| 132 | 5 | 444/6 |
| 133 | 1 | 445/6 |
| 134 | 7 | 452/6 |
| 135 | 7 | 459/6 |
| 136 | 6 | 465/6 |
| 137 | 5 | 470/6 |
| 138 | 0 | 470/6 |
| 139 | 1 | 471/6 |
| 140 | 4 | 475/6 |
| 141 | 0 | 475/6 |
| 142 | 1 | 476/7 |
| 143 | 0 | 476/7 |
| 144 | 0 | 476/7 |
| 145 | 3 | 479/7 |
| 146 | 1 | 480/7 |
| 147 | 1 | 481/7 |
| 148 | 1 | 482/7 |
| 149 | 9 | 491/7 |
| 150 | 1 | 492/7 |
| 151 | 1 | 493/7 |
| 152 | 4 | 497/8 |
| 153 | 1 | 498/8 |
| 154 | 5 | 503/8 |
| 155 | 7 | 510/8 |
| 156 | 7 | 517/8 |
| 157 | 1 | 518/9 |
| 158 | 1 | 519/9 |
| 159 | 12 | 531/10 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Khaled Ahmed: Press Information Department · Public domain
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mahmudul Hasan Joy: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mominul Haque: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taijul Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shakib Al Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zakir Hasan: Press Information Department · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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