**Queen's Park, Chesterfield**
Photo: Schumi555
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

YorkshireversusDerbyshire

7 Jul 2024 · T20

Queen's Park, Chesterfield · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Derbyshire won by 7 wickets

Yorkshire20.0 overs130/9 Derbyshire15.0 overs131/3 Queen's Park, Chesterfield ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Yorkshire started on 48%; Yorkshire batted first.

Yorkshire’s chance of winning (%) · Derbyshire is the rest

Yorkshire's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Derbyshire: 49% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.1: AT Thomson to DJ Malan, DJ Malan out. Derbyshire up from 51% to 63%.
1.5: AT Thomson to A Lyth, A Lyth out. Derbyshire up from 60% to 71%.
1.6: AT Thomson to Shan Masood, Shan Masood out. Derbyshire up from 71% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Derbyshire chose to field
match referees: DA Cosker
umpires: GD Lloyd, RA Kettleborough

Match history & source

On 7 Jul 2024, Yorkshire played Derbyshire at Queen's Park, Chesterfield. Recorded result: Derbyshire won by 7 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.