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Asian Cricket Council Men's Challenger Cup · 2023/24 · Men
2 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Thailand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 44%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akshaykumar Yadavcaught · S Ravichandran · R Sakurano-Thomas 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Ravichandran · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
| Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · D Suzuki · P Kumbhare 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · D Suzuki · b P Kumbhare | 31 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 258.33 |
| Y Saranonnakkuncaught · Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming · Ibrahim Takahashi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming · b Ibrahim Takahashi | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 70.59 |
| Austin Lazaruscaught · A Patmore · R Sakurano-Thomas 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Patmore · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 266.67 |
| N Nuntarachcaught · L Yamamoto-Lake · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · L Yamamoto-Lake · b R Sakurano-Thomas |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Jandre Coetzeecaught · S Ravichandran · R Sakurano-Thomas 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Ravichandran · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 30 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 107.14 |
|---|
| Mukesh Thakurcaught · W Miyauchi · Ibrahim Takahashi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · W Miyauchi · b Ibrahim Takahashi | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Chanchai Pengkumtacaught · R Drake · Ibrahim Takahashi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Drake · b Ibrahim Takahashi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| P Desungnoencaught · Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Nopphon Senamontreecaught · KH Abe · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KH Abe · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| Sarawut Maliwannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Sakurano-Thomas0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 26 | 6 | 6.78 | 2 | 0 |
| P Kumbhare0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
| R Drake0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
| D Suzuki0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
1-47 (Chaloemwong Chatphaisan, 3.3) · 2-49 (Akshaykumar Yadav, 4.1) · 3-57 (Austin Lazarus, 4.4) · 4-57 (N Nuntarach, 5.0) · 5-90 (Y Saranonnakkun, 10.5) · 6-101 (Mukesh Thakur, 12.2) · 7-101 (Chanchai Pengkumta, 12.4) · 8-111 (Jandre Coetzee, 14.1) · 9-112 (P Desungnoen, 14.5) · 10-120 (Nopphon Senamontree, 16.5)
Recorded target: 167 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 24/0 |
| 3 | 21 | 45/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 57/4 |
| 6 | 11 | 68/4 |
| 7 | 3 | 71/4 |
| 8 | 1 | 72/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 74/4 |
| 10 | 13 | 87/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 92/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 101/5 |
| 13 | 1 | 102/7 |
| 14 | 8 | 110/7 |
| 15 | 2 | 112/9 |
| 16 | 6 | 118/9 |
| 17 | 2 | 120/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.