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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
20 Oct 2025 · T20
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 45%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Seifertcaught · Jordan Cox · Adil Rashid 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jordan Cox · b Adil Rashid | 39 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 134.48 |
| Tim Robinsoncaught · Jordan Cox · Brydon Carse 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jordan Cox · b Brydon Carse | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Jos Buttler · Brydon Carse2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Brydon Carse | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 266.67 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Jordan Cox · Liam Dawson 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jordan Cox · b Liam Dawson | 28 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 116.67 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Philip Salt · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Philip Salt · b Adil Rashid |
| 9 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 112.50 |
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Tom Banton · Liam Dawson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Liam Dawson | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| James Neeshamcaught · Tom Banton · Adil Rashid 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Adil Rashid | 17 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 130.77 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Sam Curran · Adil Rashid 3 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Adil Rashid | 36 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 240.00 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesonnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Jacob Bethell · Luke Wood0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Luke Wood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jacob Duffycaught · Harry Brook · Luke Wood0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Luke Wood | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 12 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Wood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 9.00 | 0 | 2 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 12.33 | 2 | 1 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 8.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 7 | 0 |
1-10 (Tim Robinson, 1.1) · 2-18 (Rachin Ravindra, 1.4) · 3-87 (Mark Chapman, 9.1) · 4-91 (Tim Seifert, 10.2) · 5-94 (Michael Bracewell, 11.2) · 6-104 (Daryl Mitchell, 12.2) · 7-161 (James Neesham, 16.1) · 8-164 (Mitchell Santner, 17.0) · 9-169 (Matt Henry, 17.3) · 10-171 (Jacob Duffy, 18.0)
Recorded target: 237 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 23/2 |
| 3 | 5 | 28/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 5 | 15 | 48/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 60/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 70/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 86/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 90/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 94/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 100/5 |
| 13 | 12 | 112/6 |
| 14 | 23 | 135/6 |
| 15 | 9 | 144/6 |
| 16 | 14 | 158/6 |
| 17 | 6 | 164/8 |
| 18 | 7 | 171/10 |
Luke Wood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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