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Photo: Krish Dulal
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
5 May 2026 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 49%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Hasnain Ul Wahab · Nadeem Khan (2) 7 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Hasnain Ul Wahab · b Nadeem Khan (2) | 94 | 97 | 7 | 5 | 96.91 |
 Binod Bhandaricaught · Hammad Mirza · Jiten Ramanandi0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hammad Mirza · b Jiten Ramanandi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Arjun Kumalcaught · Vinayak Shukla · Hassnain Shah 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Hassnain Shah | 48 | 87 | 4 | 0 | 55.17 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Nadeem Khan (2) · Shakeel Ahmed0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nadeem Khan (2) · b Shakeel Ahmed | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 56.25 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Bukkapatnam Siddharth · b Nadeem Khan (2) |
| 33 |
| 42 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 78.57 |
 Gulsan Jhalbw · AR Bisht2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b AR Bisht | 17 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 73.91 |
|---|
 Aarif Sheikhcaught · Hasnain Ul Wahab · Hassnain Shah1 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Hasnain Ul Wahab · b Hassnain Shah | 43 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 179.17 |
|---|
 Karan KCbowled · Nadeem Khan (2)0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nadeem Khan (2) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavbowled · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shakeel Ahmed | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanerun out · Jatinder Singh · Nadeem Khan (2)0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jatinder Singh | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakeel Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Jiten Ramanandi1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Nadeem Khan (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Wasim Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bukkapatnam Siddharth0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassnain Shah0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 0 | 58 | 2 | 7.40 | 3 | 0 |
| AR Bisht0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Binod Bhandari, 1.1) · 2-123 (Arjun Kumal, 27.5) · 3-141 (Rohit Kumar, 31.3) · 4-163 (Aasif Sheikh, 34.3) · 5-195 (Gulsan Jha, 42.1) · 6-226 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 46.1) · 7-226 (Karan KC, 46.2) · 8-231 (Nandan Yadav, 47.4) · 9-236 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 48.4) · 10-256 (Aarif Sheikh, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 4/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 9/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 10/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 12/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 21/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 29/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 34/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 44/1 |
| 14 | 13 | 57/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 58/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 61/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 66/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 72/1 |
| 19 | 6 | 78/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 82/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 85/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 89/1 |
| 23 | 3 | 92/1 |
| 24 | 9 | 101/1 |
| 25 | 1 | 102/1 |
| 26 | 9 | 111/1 |
| 27 | 8 | 119/1 |
| 28 | 5 | 124/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 127/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 131/2 |
| 31 | 10 | 141/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 147/3 |
| 33 | 8 | 155/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 162/3 |
| 35 | 1 | 163/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 167/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 168/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 174/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 184/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 186/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 191/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 195/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 199/5 |
| 44 | 11 | 210/5 |
| 45 | 7 | 217/5 |
| 46 | 9 | 226/5 |
| 47 | 2 | 228/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 233/8 |
| 49 | 4 | 237/9 |
| 50 | 19 | 256/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Binod Bhandari: Punya · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
