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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
5 May 2026 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 49%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jatinder Singhcaught · Aarif Sheikh · Nandan Yadav 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aarif Sheikh · b Nandan Yadav | 12 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 63.16 |
| Hasnain Ul Wahabcaught · Lalit Rajbanshi · Gulsan Jha 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Lalit Rajbanshi · b Gulsan Jha | 29 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 67.44 |
| Bukkapatnam Siddharthrun out · Nandan Yadav · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nandan Yadav | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Hammad Mirzacaught · Aarif Sheikh · Karan KC 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aarif Sheikh · b Karan KC | 34 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 66.67 |
| AR Bishtcaught · Binod Bhandari · Gulsan Jha 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Binod Bhandari · b Gulsan Jha | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 35.29 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Jiten Ramanandicaught · K Bhurtel · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · K Bhurtel · b Gulsan Jha |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Vinayak Shuklacaught · Binod Bhandari · Gulsan Jha 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Binod Bhandari · b Gulsan Jha | 36 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 87.80 |
|---|
| Wasim Alilbw · Dipendra Singh Airee 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| Shakeel Ahmednot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 23 | 0 | 0 | 13.04 |
|---|
| Hassnain Shahcaught · Rohit Kumar · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Gulsan Jha | 14 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Nadeem Khan (2)caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Sandeep Lamichhane 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 12 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 109.09 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshi1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 4.29 | 1 | 0 |
 Karan KC1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 4.33 | 5 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 4.22 | 1 | 1 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (Jatinder Singh, 6.4) · 2-42 (Bukkapatnam Siddharth, 8.0) · 3-66 (Hasnain Ul Wahab, 12.4) · 4-80 (AR Bisht, 18.3) · 5-91 (Jiten Ramanandi, 20.1) · 6-110 (Hammad Mirza, 26.2) · 7-137 (Wasim Ali, 31.5) · 8-147 (Vinayak Shukla, 34.2) · 9-161 (Hassnain Shah, 36.4) · 10-175 (Nadeem Khan (2), 39.5)
Recorded target: 257 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 9 | 13 | 55/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 55/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 62/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 65/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 66/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 67/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 68/3 |
| 16 | 0 | 68/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 75/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 79/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 82/4 |
| 20 | 8 | 90/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 92/5 |
| 22 | 0 | 92/5 |
| 23 | 3 | 95/5 |
| 24 | 10 | 105/5 |
| 25 | 2 | 107/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 110/5 |
| 27 | 0 | 110/6 |
| 28 | 8 | 118/6 |
| 29 | 3 | 121/6 |
| 30 | 2 | 123/6 |
| 31 | 8 | 131/6 |
| 32 | 6 | 137/7 |
| 33 | 4 | 141/7 |
| 34 | 2 | 143/7 |
| 35 | 5 | 148/8 |
| 36 | 1 | 149/8 |
| 37 | 13 | 162/9 |
| 38 | 2 | 164/9 |
| 39 | 1 | 165/9 |
| 40 | 10 | 175/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Binod Bhandari: Punya · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
