BermudaversusCayman Islands

20 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bermuda won by 30 runs

Bermuda20.0 overs137/5 Cayman Islands20.0 overs107/8 Jimmy Powell Oval, Cayman Islands ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bermuda more likely to win

77%Bermuda23%Cayman Islands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bermuda rate stronger than Cayman Islands (1,579 vs 1,447 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Bermuda won 6 and Cayman Islands won 0
Cayman Islands are playing at home in the Cayman Islands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bermuda started on 76%; Bermuda batted first.

Bermuda’s chance of winning (%) · Cayman Islands is the rest

Bermuda's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Cayman Islands: 0% to 66%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.2: D Sabir to J Baker, J Baker out. Bermuda up from 40% to 53%.
2nd inns 13.5: D Sabir to RA Sealy, RA Sealy out. Bermuda up from 54% to 66%.
2nd inns 14.1: K Fubler to AR Naidoo, AR Naidoo out. Bermuda up from 64% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bermuda137/5 Cayman Islands107/8

Innings 2

Cayman Islands

107/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cayman Islands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
J Bakercaught · Allan Douglas · D Sabir 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Allan Douglas · b D Sabir	54	51	3	3	105.88
Sacha De Alwiscaught · Delray Rawlins · Allan Douglas 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Delray Rawlins · b Allan Douglas	1	7	0	0	14.29
AR Naidoocaught · D Sabir · Kevon Fubler 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Sabir · b Kevon Fubler	17	23	0	0	73.91
Ramon Sealybowled · D Sabir 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b D Sabir	2	3	0	0	66.67
D Johnsonbowled · Kevon Fubler 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kevon Fubler	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Delray Rawlins0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	0	4.50	0
Zeko Burgess0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	0	5.00	1
Allan Douglas1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	18	1	9.00	0
Derrick Brangman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	1	5.33	0
J Proctor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	0	5.67	1
Kevon Fubler0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	3	4.25	0
D Sabir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	3	4.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	5	10/0
3	4	14/0
4	0	14/1
5	9	23/1
6	18	41/1
7	2	43/1
8	6	49/1
9	4	53/1
10	4	57/1
11	6	63/1
12	5	68/1
13	6	74/1
14	3	77/3
15	1	78/6
16	6	84/7
17	5	89/8
18	5	94/8
19	5	99/8
20	8	107/8

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