AustraliaversusPakistan

23 Jun 2026 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 113 runs

Australia20.0 overs199/7 Pakistan13.4 overs86/10 Headingley ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

94%Australia6%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Pakistan (1,784 vs 1,453 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 10 and Pakistan won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 94%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 91% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 9%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Sadia Iqbal to BL Mooney, BL Mooney out. Pakistan up from 6% to 9%.
1.2: Fatima Sana to EA Perry, four by EA Perry. Australia up from 91% to 93%.
10.4: Rameen Shamim to G Wareham, G Wareham out. Pakistan up from 2% to 3%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia199/7 Pakistan86/10

Innings 2

Pakistan

86/1013.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muneeba Alicaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Ellyse Perry 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Ellyse Perry	32	25	4	1	128.00
Gull Ferozarun out · Georgia Voll, Kim Garth · Kim Garth 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Georgia Voll, Kim Garth	1	3	0	0	33.33
Saira Jabeencaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Sophie Molineux 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Sophie Molineux	5	4	1	0	125.00
Ayesha Zafarrun out · Beth Mooney, Sophie Molineux · Lucy Hamilton 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Beth Mooney, Sophie Molineux	0	4	0	0	0.00
Iram Javedbowled · Georgia Wareham 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Georgia Wareham	14	9	3	0	155.56

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lucy Hamilton0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	2
Kim Garth0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	22	0	11.00	2
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	2	3.00	1
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50	1
Georgia Wareham1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	2	1	1.00	1
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.4	0	12	2	7.20	2
Alana King0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0
Ellyse Perry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	2	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	10	13/1
3	5	18/2
4	12	30/2
5	7	37/3
6	13	50/3
7	0	50/4
8	7	57/4
9	8	65/4
10	9	74/6
11	1	75/8
12	4	79/8
13	2	81/8
14	5	86/10

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