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Photo: Trentino Priori
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West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
17 Jan 2024 · Test
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraigg Brathwaitebowled · Pat Cummins2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pat Cummins | 13 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 28.89 |
| Tagenarine Chanderpaulcaught · Cameron Green · Pat Cummins 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Pat Cummins | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 24.00 |
| Kirk McKenziecaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 50 | 94 | 7 | 0 | 53.19 |
| Alick Athanazebowled · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Hazlewood | 13 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 41.94 |
| Kavem Hodgecaught · Cameron Green · Josh Hazlewood 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Josh Hazlewood | 12 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Justin Greavescaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Josh Hazlewood 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Josh Hazlewood | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
 Joshua Da Silvacaught · Travis Head · Pat Cummins1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Pat Cummins | 6 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 27.27 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephcaught · Steve Smith · Pat Cummins 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Pat Cummins | 14 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Nathan Lyon · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nathan Lyon · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
 Kemar Roachnot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 17* | 42 | 2 | 1 | 40.48 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephlbw · Nathan Lyon 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Lyon | 36 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 87.80 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 12 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc5 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 3.08 | 1 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 6 | 44 | 4 | 2.93 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.0 | 5 | 41 | 4 | 2.41 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.1 | 2 | 36 | 1 | 2.96 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Marsh1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Cameron Green1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Tagenarine Chanderpaul, 9.4) · 2-27 (Kraigg Brathwaite, 13.5) · 3-52 (Alick Athanaze, 23.3) · 4-98 (Kavem Hodge, 37.1) · 5-107 (Kirk McKenzie, 39.3) · 6-108 (Justin Greaves, 41.2) · 7-132 (Joshua Da Silva, 46.5) · 8-133 (Gudakesh Motie, 48.0) · 9-133 (Alzarri Joseph, 48.2) · 10-188 (Shamar Joseph, 62.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 14/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 14/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 14/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 14/0 |
| 10 | 0 | 14/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 19/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 13 | 0 | 23/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 31/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 37/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 42/2 |
| 19 | 0 | 42/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 45/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 52/2 |
| 24 | 0 | 52/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 56/3 |
| 26 | 0 | 56/3 |
| 27 | 8 | 64/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 68/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 69/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 72/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 79/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 79/3 |
| 33 | 0 | 79/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 85/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 89/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 94/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 98/3 |
| 38 | 0 | 98/4 |
| 39 | 9 | 107/4 |
| 40 | 0 | 107/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 108/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 109/6 |
| 43 | 3 | 112/6 |
| 44 | 6 | 118/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 122/6 |
| 46 | 8 | 130/6 |
| 47 | 3 | 133/7 |
| 48 | 0 | 133/8 |
| 49 | 3 | 136/9 |
| 50 | 4 | 140/9 |
| 51 | 0 | 140/9 |
| 52 | 5 | 145/9 |
| 53 | 0 | 145/9 |
| 54 | 10 | 155/9 |
| 55 | 4 | 159/9 |
| 56 | 6 | 165/9 |
| 57 | 2 | 167/9 |
| 58 | 7 | 174/9 |
| 59 | 3 | 177/9 |
| 60 | 4 | 181/9 |
| 61 | 6 | 187/9 |
| 62 | 1 | 188/9 |
| 63 | 0 | 188/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kemar Roach: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kraigg Brathwaite: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joshua Da Silva: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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