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West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
17 Jan 2024 · Test
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraigg Brathwaitecaught · Travis Head · Josh Hazlewood0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Josh Hazlewood | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
| Tagenarine Chanderpaulcaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kirk McKenziecaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Cameron Green 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Cameron Green | 26 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 74.29 |
| Alick Athanazecaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 0 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Kavem Hodgecaught · Steve Smith · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Josh Hazlewood | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Justin Greaveslbw · Nathan Lyon 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Lyon | 24 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 64.86 |
|---|
 Joshua Da Silvacaught · Josh Hazlewood · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Hazlewood · b Mitchell Starc | 18 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 40.91 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephcaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 16 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiebowled · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Hazlewood | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
 Kemar Roachnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 11 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephstumped · Alex Carey · Nathan Lyon 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alex Carey · b Nathan Lyon | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 46 | 2 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood6 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 14.0 | 6 | 35 | 5 | 2.50 | 0 | 1 |
 Pat Cummins1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Tagenarine Chanderpaul, 1.1) · 2-1 (Kraigg Brathwaite, 3.2) · 3-7 (Alick Athanaze, 5.4) · 4-19 (Kavem Hodge, 9.3) · 5-40 (Kirk McKenzie, 13.2) · 6-73 (Justin Greaves, 22.5) · 7-84 (Joshua Da Silva, 26.3) · 8-94 (Alzarri Joseph, 31.0) · 9-94 (Gudakesh Motie, 31.3) · 10-120 (Shamar Joseph, 35.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 7/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 7/3 |
| 7 | 10 | 17/3 |
| 8 | 0 | 17/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 17/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 19/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 24/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 33/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 40/4 |
| 14 | 2 | 42/5 |
| 15 | 9 | 51/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 53/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 57/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 62/5 |
| 19 | 2 | 64/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 68/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 69/5 |
| 22 | 3 | 72/5 |
| 23 | 1 | 73/6 |
| 24 | 0 | 73/6 |
| 25 | 10 | 83/6 |
| 26 | 1 | 84/6 |
| 27 | 0 | 84/7 |
| 28 | 0 | 84/7 |
| 29 | 3 | 87/7 |
| 30 | 2 | 89/7 |
| 31 | 5 | 94/8 |
| 32 | 6 | 100/9 |
| 33 | 6 | 106/9 |
| 34 | 8 | 114/9 |
| 35 | 6 | 120/9 |
| 36 | 0 | 120/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kemar Roach: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kraigg Brathwaite: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joshua Da Silva: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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