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New Zealand tour of Pakistan · 2024 · Men
27 Apr 2024 · T20
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 31%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 11% to 95% during the match (New Zealand: 5% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Seifertbowled · Usama Mir 7 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Usama Mir | 52 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 157.58 |
 Tom Blundellbowled · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Shadab Khan 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Shadab Khan | 23 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 109.52 |
| Mark Chapmanbowled · Usama Mir 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Usama Mir | 12 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Cole McConchielbw · Imad Wasim 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Imad Wasim | 1 | 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| James Neeshamcaught · Shadab Khan · Shaheen Afridi 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shadab Khan · b Shaheen Afridi | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Josh Clarksonnot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 38* | 26 | 3 | 2 | 146.15 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesbowled · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Ish Sodhilbw · Shaheen Afridi0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shaheen Afridi | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Ben Searsrun out · Usman Khan, Mohammad Amir · Mohammad Amir 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Usman Khan, Mohammad Amir | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkerun out · Shadab Khan, Mohammad Amir · Mohammad Amir0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shadab Khan, Mohammad Amir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 4 | 7.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Mohammad Amir0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 12.30 | 4 | 0 |
| Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Usama Mir1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Iftikhar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Shadab Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Imad Wasim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Tom Blundell, 0.5) · 2-81 (Tim Seifert, 8.1) · 3-97 (Mark Chapman, 11.0) · 4-97 (Michael Bracewell, 11.3) · 5-103 (Cole McConchie, 12.1) · 6-125 (James Neesham, 14.2) · 7-125 (Zakary Foulkes, 14.3) · 8-137 (Ish Sodhi, 16.1) · 9-168 (Ben Sears, 19.0) · 10-169 (William O’Rourke, 19.2)
Recorded target: 179 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 14/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 15 | 35/1 |
| 5 | 14 | 49/1 |
| 6 | 14 | 63/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 66/1 |
| 8 | 15 | 81/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 81/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 92/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 97/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 103/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 108/5 |
| 14 | 13 | 121/5 |
| 15 | 7 | 128/7 |
| 16 | 9 | 137/7 |
| 17 | 9 | 146/8 |
| 18 | 11 | 157/8 |
| 19 | 10 | 167/8 |
| 20 | 2 | 169/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Amir: 92 News · CC BY 3.0
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Imad Wasim: 92 News · CC BY 3.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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