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Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
6 Feb 2024 · ODI
Manuka Oval, Canberra · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 11%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 15% during the match (Australia: 85% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Fraser-McGurkcaught · Gudakesh Motie · Alzarri Joseph 5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Alzarri Joseph | 41 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 227.78 |
 Josh Inglisnot out4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 35* | 16 | 4 | 1 | 218.75 |
| Aaron Hardiecaught · Shai Hope · Oshane Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Oshane Thomas | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
 Steve Smithnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 20.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Oshane Thomas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 8.40 | 1 | 0 |
1-67 (Jake Fraser-McGurk, 4.3) · 2-80 (Aaron Hardie, 6.2)
Recorded target: 87 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 16 | 27/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 35/0 |
| 4 | 24 | 59/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 70/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 80/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 87/2 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Sutherland: @evermorestation on Twitter · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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